Poll results: Will ICE become best-selling car ever again?

The poll results came in at

Do you think we’ll ever see another ICE car becoming the best-selling car in the world?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Yes (66)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 No (106)

172 Votes

Answers on Yes, we will see another ICE vehicle become best-selling in the world.

“I think EVs and ICE vehicles will flip flop back and forth until EVs put the final nail in the coffin.”

“Not only the UK, but the EU is openly discussing an extension for purchasing ICE vehicles and may follow the UK by changing the rules to 2025... keep watching the news space for an announcement”

“Definite yes. The whole top 10 apart from Model Y is models with majority of sales coming from ICE. In addition Tesla enjoys pretty much all of their SUV sales getting piled on the Model Y. Tesla will come out with even cheaper vehicles so while overall sales volume might increase, the sales will be spread out over more models putting them overall lower on the list with a single model. Right now the choice for a person buying a Tesla has been a super obvious Model Y, that might not be the case in the future or even already with the revamped 3.”

“There has been a miscalculation in anointing the Model Y as the best seller as versions of the Toyota Corolla were ignored in the count making it the leader by far.”

“It will be a super-cheap ICE vehicle for the large population of the world (not just the rich North) who cannot afford anything else”

“The manufactures know that price sells cars. I expect in the next couple of years you will see more <12K cars and small trucks hitting the market in one final attempt for the car manufacturers to hang on to gas burning vehicles before they admit EVs are here to stay.”

“Actually, it doesn't matter. The focus should be on reality. There will always be a place for an ICE vehicle. It is unlikely that we will ever end up with batteries that have the energy density of diesel fuel. Regardless, that doesn't change the fact that, for most of us, a BEV is ideal.

“Because EVs still are not universally accepted, and with limited government credits diminishing, and lack of charger infrastructure, people will tend to stick with tried-and-true.”

“The believers are rushing to buy. I predict EVs will last longer than ICE, therefore the yet non believers will need to replace more often. The transition from non believer to believer will still take many years. We now know half the country is stupid. ”

“I think every year from now on......”

Answers on no, we will not see another ICE vehicle become best-selling in the world.

“Times they are a-changing!”

“Hi Jaan, good job on highlighting the Y being the best-selling vehicle in the world, yet that goes unrecognized in much of the USA whether media, consumers, or analysts. It is only America that values big ICE pickup trucks so highly. Keep up the good work!”

“More EVs are being launched with compelling features at attractive prices, especially from China. But ICE cars are only getting stale cosmetic updates. China, Asia, and even Europe consumers will continue to switch to EVs at a good clip, especially as interest rates climb down in 2024. US will lag, saddled by protectionism, a struggling auto industry, unions, a buyer-alienating dealership model, and entrenched biases. And fewer good choices. The momentum has been clear for some time. ”

“ICE cars are becoming more expensive. If prices are equal, people would choose the EV.”

“Europe’s 2035 bans make that impossible, as China finds an auto-buying population eager for EVs (look at the reception the CyberTruck is getting there).”

“No, judging by the rapid rise in popularity of EVs in the last 10 years”

“Add BEV 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers and smaller pick-up trucks, which is what happens in Asia, and you have gas stations shutting down. Anecdotal inputs on that from India abound.”

“There's so much FUD about an EV slowdown, but the most likely path forward is that EV sales globally will keep growing strongly globally as a percentage of total sales. (They are just better.) On this basis, I would expect Tesla to sell slightly more in 2024 than they did in 2023 - of each Model 3 & Model Y. (And actually, more of X/S & of course more Cybertrucks.)
Then there's the question of whether another model can get close if Tesla sells slightly more. (Answer: not a chance on recent history.) BYD's Sea Lion might surprise and cannibalize Model Y sales globally, but I don't think this will mean that Tesla will sell fewer Model Ys in 2024. As time passes, there will be fewer and fewer ICE vehicles that could even contest for best-selling car in the world. So I don't think we'll ever see another ICE car become the best-selling in the world.”

“At the time of when I write this: 62.5% Yes; 37.5% no I think this result would be flipped if it was summertime in the northern hemisphere along with spiking petro/gas prices. Regardless of political and media FUD. ”