Hey! Jaan here.
Back with your mandatory dose of everything EV.
Today we’ll cover stuff like:
EV sales numbers across the ‘verse (and I might’ve misled Musk).
A zero-emission supply chain map for Canada.
All EV tax benefits in the EU listed.
Card payment in chargers? Norway mandates it now. Will others?
Mercedes is the first of German Auto to adopt NACS.
By the way, I’ve got lots of Tesla news in the bank — dropping these in our Tesla-only newsletter next week. And if you’re a Pro Member, you’ll get another detailed report today too. Have fun digging in!
Words: 2,774 | Time to read: 13 minutes | Feeling: like ordering something off Amazon in Germany just to see the Rivian EDV deliver it.
Something funny happened. Or… weird. Now that I think of it.
I was researching the second quarter EV delivery numbers across the world and, like I often do, tweeted out some of the findings immediately. In this case, it was the US EV sales data from Kelley Blue Book (brand of Cox Automotive). Cox has always been one of the best sources for EV data in the US. The data is here: (link)
So I tweeted out that Tesla had a 68.8% market share in the US in the first half of 2023. And that GM came second at ~6.5% market share. Like shown in the table.
Then this guy, who also happens to own the platform, liked the tweet and replied:
We get the 69 jokes and that’s cool and all. I also don’t mind the extra 700k impressions to my tweets. But this isn’t the weird part.
The weird part is that the market share % I shared was wrong. You see, I used the data from Cox revised on July 12th for this table, which they have since revised again on July 13th, to show Tesla actually had a 60.5% market share. And I’m dumb to not double-check their market share data beforehand.
Of course, I did add follow-ups to correct the mistake everywhere and will probably delete the tweet later. But I did make a very public mistake.
Three follow-up thoughts:
This doesn’t change the fact that Tesla leads the market at 60.5% vs GM in second place at 6.5%. A drop in US EV market share dominance is expected, but the gap is still very significant.
How come almost no one caught the mistake & his own team didn’t advise him this is not true, immediately?
Anyway, back to the EV industry stuff, shall we?
I love EV-related interactive maps. You might know that about me by now.
So you can imagine I was pretty happy to stumble upon the Canadian ZEV Supply Chain Map. I found it through my friend Michael, who runs the EV North newsletter.
The EV North newsletter is like the EV Universe… but mostly aimed at EVs in Canada. Fun part is that since he runs it on the same platform as we do (this one), you’ll be able to subscribe with nothing but one click to the button here:
European Commission proposes allowing additional weight for heavy-duty electric trucks. (link) Insight from our Pro Report last week: the European Parliament is also considering increasing the max weight limit for zero emission vehicles under the ‘B’ category (passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles) from 3.5 tonnes to 4.25 tonnes. (link)
Over 300 Rivian-Amazon delivery vans EDV500 are about to arrive in Europe and will go into service in Germany in the coming weeks. (link) The collaboration just reached 5,000 EDVs on the road in 800 cities and regions across the US. (link) The companies still aim to have 100,000 Rivian EDVs on the road globally by 2030.
Rivian launched a newsletter for the owners (link). Just yesterday, it also launched a page with details on the three drive systems it offers for the R1: Dual Motor, Performance Dual-Motor, and Quad-Motor. (link)
Watch tip: Rivian CEO RJ Scaring in a great 30-minute interview on Bloomberg Tech, digging deeper on its current supply chain status, production, Amazon, R2 and what’s next (video on YT or on Twitter).
Here's the full 30-minute interview with @RJScaringe of @Rivian on Bloomberg.
RJ: “Everything funnels through one core decision criteria: how do we maximize impact for what is a once in many generations shift from a fossil fuel-based to a renewable-based transportation system.”
— Jaan of the EV Universe ⚡ (@TheEVuniverse)
Jul 12, 2023
Play tip: BYD launched the “BYD World”, a way to test-drive its cars “in the Metaverse.” (video). Here’s the way to their ‘Metaverse Showroom’: (link) It kind of feels like playing GTA or something… 10 years ago. I like informational 360° configurators though.
Resource tip: The fresh version of all passenger EV tax benefits and purchase incentives per every country in the European Union. (8-page pdf). And here is the same thing for electric commercial vehicles (8-page pdf).
Read tip: The story of Scott Painter and his Autonomy, an EV subscription startup. (link) I was surprised to learn how much Tesla’s price cuts affected the plans of the company. Scott says its fleet value had dropped from $85M to around $57M in one day. This hit the growth plans significantly, and Autonomy raised another $12M round and cut back staff to 45 from 120. Their fleet is now at around 1,300 EVs and Painter believes they’ll need about 3,000 to break even. To get there, the startup plans to raise another $20M or more in funding.
Headline tip: Residual values of EVs across nations are a hot topic right now. For example, this info from Cap hpi sees the 20 biggest depreciations of this year between January and June in the UK have all been EVs (link). Although, looking through the list of these 20, it’s worth mentioning that most of these EVs are basically driving on what I would consider old EV tech. Thanks, Nick, for the article. Get our Pro Report this week to read about another EV subscription business potentially in trouble because of the residual value drop.
This is, I believe, the very first time we’ve seen Lucid Gravity SUV testing in full view on the streets. (link) Previously we saw the SUV in the video on the race track two months ago here and a few pics along it here.
Is it just me or does Gravity have strong VinFast VF9 vibes?
Lucid promises to bring the car to market in 2024 with ‘range beyond anything else on the market except Lucid Air’. (link)
Fiat’s new quadricycle EV Topolino will come with the option to add a “little shower” that is “designed for those days spent on the beach along the Italian coast.” (link) The car starts from €9,890 ($11k). Fiat also now launched the Fiat 600e compact SUV, starts at €35,950 ($39,130). (link) It claims to have a 600km (373 mi) WLTP range “on the urban cycle”.
The European Union member states have now also approved the EU Battery Regulation, set to come into effect in a few weeks. (link) It will replace the current 2006 Battery Directive. As we covered back here, this will introduce several measures for a circular economy, including a digital battery passport requirement, minimum levels of materials that need to be recovered from ‘waste’ batteries, and minimum levels of recycled content that any new batteries need to contain.
The Chief Scientist of the world’s largest battery maker CATL, on Toyota’s solid-state battery claims:
CATL also claims it has developed new electrolyte materials that should improve the charging efficiency on battery designs, delivering a 50% increase in efficiency at -20°C. This might be similar to what we shared on our Pro Report in June, on the GAC-backed Greater Bay Technology’s new Phoenix battery, the thermal management technology of which also had some strong cold-charging claims. (link)
Norway has found “a massive underground deposit of high-grade phosphate rock” sized around 70 billion tons in the Rogaland area in the Southwest. (link)
Of course, phosphate is used in different industries like agriculture (currently 90% of production is used in agri), but also in EVs — and as far as I can tell this could reduce Europe’s dependency on phosphate for China or Russia for the EV (LFP) batteries significantly.
The phosphate deposits in the rest of the world have been estimated at 71B tons. As far as I’ve gathered from different ‘self-made’ media, the phosphorus shortage has been a real thing talked about by those in the LFP industry.
This is what Schäfer reportedly said in a speech this Monday, to around 2,000 managers of the company. He called his speech the ‘final wake-up call’ and imposed an investment freeze saying competitors in the same segment are earning 2-3 times as much as VW brand. (link and link to paywalled sources in 🇩🇪). Note, that none of this is directly confirmed by Volkswagen as of yet.
Volkswagen is said to be struggling with not enough EV demand, as reportedly the executives at some VW plants have said the demand for particular battery-electric models had fallen “to zero,” (link).
This falls in line with what I wrote in our Pro Report last week about Volkswagen temporarily reducing the production of EVs at its Emden, Germany plant, as EV sales are dropping. The demand is reportedly almost 30% below the originally planned production.
The car dealers reportedly point to a general reluctance of European consumers to buy EVs, blaming subsidy cuts, high inflation, and comparatively high prices.
Per the German authority KBA, June saw 52,988 BEVs delivered in Germany, up 64.4% from last year. Still, the market has reportedly cooled and these figures are said to be largely based on the remaining orders of 2022.
I’ve yet to come across good data that would show us the market is cooling (perhaps we’ll get a better idea in autumn), but here’s a little comparison for European sales of VW’s ID. line so far:
VW built 97k and sold 73k ID models in Europe between January and May. Meanwhile, Tesla sold over 100k of just its Model Y in the same period in Europe.
Adding this to the growing competition from both domestic and incoming Chinese EVs, along with the possible cooling of the market, I can see why it can spell trouble for VW.
The official news we’ve seen from Volkswagen brand so far is their new savings program called “Accelerate Forward | Road to 6.5”, as it wants to achieve a return on investments of 6.5% and improve its balance sheet by €10B by 2026. “The program is the number one priority for the entire Board of Management.”
The restructuring measures are to be in place by October this year. For example, VW wants to concentrate more on volume models and has no successor models for low-volume vehicles (such as the Arteon, they said). VW also plans to reduce the different trims available. (link)
EV UNIVERSE IN NUMBERS
Here are some of the recent Q2 sales results for battery-electric vehicles I’ve gathered. All numbers are global unless otherwise noted.
Tesla: 466,140 (+83% increase year-over-year, +10% over Q1).
Includes 19,225 Model S/X (produced 19,489) and 446,915 Model 3/Y (produced 460,211).
BMW Group: 88,289 BMW and MINIs (+117.5%), making up 14% of its overall sales. Year-to-date sales: 152,936.
Polestar: 15,800 (+36%), Year-to-date: 27,900. Says it’s on track for 60-70k this year.
General Motors (US only): 15,354 (+112.7%), of which 1,348 were LYRIQ, 13,959 Bolt EV/EUV and 47 Hummer EVs. Year-to-date 36,322 EVs, making up only 2.8% of its overall sales.
Ford (US only): 14,843 (-2.8%), and 25,709 in the first half of the year (+11.9%). This includes 4,466 F-150 Lightning sales in Q2 and 8,633 Mach-E sales.
Rivian: 12,640 (produced 13,992). On track for annual goal of 50k.
Mercedes-Benz Passenger Cars: 56,300 (+123%), making up 10.9% of its overall sales.
Volvo Cars: 29,191, and 59,260 year-to-date (+167%). This puts the BEV share of sales at 17.3%. While Volvo seems to be getting there in the sales mix, the Q2 BEV sales decreased by 2.9% over Q1 for some reason.
Lucid Motors: 1,404 (+107% and produced 2,173), which is a 2-car decline from Q1 of 1406 deliveries.
Fisker produced 1,022 Ocean SUVs.
And here are some of the countries:
China: 573,000 in June (+20.5% YoY), 1,566,000 in the Q2 and 2,719,000 in the first half of the year (+10.3%). In the first half of the year, BEVs made up 20.5% of all cars sold in China.
US: 295,355 in Q2, 556,707 in the first half of the year, per Kelley Blue Book (Cox Automotive) estimates revised again yesterday. We can see Tesla reached a 60.5% EV market share for the first half of the year (and 59.3% for Q2), with the second place going to General Motors with ~6.5% share.
Cox is also giving its opinion here saying that the EV market is heading into its Trough of Disillusionment (as in the Gartner Hype Cycle) and days of 75% YoY growth are in the rearview mirror. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Another good info bit: According to Cox, the average EV selling price in Q2 was $53,438, down 19.5% from the peak in June at $66,390. (link) That’s no doubt what the Tesla price cuts did and initiated. Here’s Lexus already offering up to $10k off its new electric RZ (link).
United Kingdom: 31,700 in June (+39.4% YoY) and 152,968 in the first half of the year (+32.7%), putting BEVs in a 16.1% market share of overall sales. The best seller across all fuel types in June: Tesla Model Y.
Norway: 12,801 in June (+9.2%), 66,549 in the first half of the year (-2.9%). BEVs took an 82.2% market share in June and 83.1% for the first half of 2023. How about this for weird scales: more Model Ys were sold in Norway in June than all plug-in hybrids, hybrids and regular ICE cars put together (3,127 vs 2,765) (link).
More Tesla Model Ys were sold in Norway in June, than all plug-in hybrids, hybrids, and regular ICE cars put together.
3,127 vs 2,765.
Read that again.
— Jaan of the EV Universe ⚡ (@TheEVuniverse)
Jul 7, 2023
In Norway, any new 50kW+ DC charger deployed must offer a card payment option. (link) Still being discussed by gov is potentially requiring existing stations to be retrofitted to do the same by 2025. We’ve also reported of these talks going on on the European Union level and I wonder if we see regulation coming in at one point.
I have an opinion on all this, but first I’m curious about yours. Poll time!
Should card payment be a required option in all fast chargers?
(see results and comment after voting)
Certainly in connection to the news, the Finnish charging platform Virta launched the Virta Payment Kiosk, a standalone payment column that can be deployed ‘cheap and fast’ to any CPO on its platform and can connect to more than one charger simultaneously, also as a retrofitting solution. Virta’s platform has around 90,000 chargers in 35 countries.
Mercedes-Benz will integrate NACS, ports will be used in its North American EVs from 2025. (link) Mercedes will still build out its 2,500-charger network in 400 locations, first of which are to open soon. The network has both CCS1 and NACS. Perhaps even more notably, Mercedes is now the first German Automaker to adopt NACS.
The first charger maker has now received an order through the US’ NEVI program. Tritium will provide eight Tritium NEVI systems to Hawaii, which consists of 32×150kW chargers and 16 power units. (link) It is expected the NEVI funding will deliver up to 788 miles (1,268 km) worth of roadway coverage across Hawaii.
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