⚡️ Crystal ball end of 2022: EV Universe members predict for EVs in 2023

[THIS POST WAS PUBLISHED ON JAN 17th, 2023]

Hey, Jaan here.

As promised, here's the standalone crystal ball issue. This is about something I value the most.

The community we've built.

Here are each of your 65 predictions submitted, with paraphrasing and compiling for clarity by me. Among you are industry professionals and EV owners, investors and founders, enthusiasts and skeptics.

This truly is one of the more exciting parts of building the EV Universe for me, so I am thankful to everyone who took the time to write something up for us.

OK, enough of my fluff.

There are 6 categories of predictions below, with 2,673 words total:

🔮 Categories:

• EV CRYSTAL BALL 2023

• EV GROWTH IN 2023

• CHARGING

• TESLA

• BATTERIES

• SKEPTICAL / LIMITED GROWTH

• OTHER EV CATEGORIES

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EV CRYSTAL BALL 2023

I want to start with the one that made me laugh:

"My crystal ball is as unclear as the muddy flood water surrounding me here in California." — anonymous

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EV GROWTH IN 2023

I'll start with this prediction, as it captures in one place what several of you saw coming in 2023:

Jaan: I'm flattered. Double that subscriber count but still... flattered. :)

This was predicted, in some form or another by The EV guy, Arnis (LEAF & iMiEV owner), @elonfantommy, Tom Waters (Volt owner), anonymous, Dani, an anonymous Tesla M3 and LEAF owner, Anon working in Commercial EV Batteries, Tiff (drives 2017 LEAF), Anon Model Y owner in Canada, LucyLuc, Jrod, and Almir.

Lynn has a personal reason to keep an eye on the models:

And then, there were some more specific ideas on growth:

• EV will hit 15% of new vehicle sales in the US. — Trent

• The growth of electric cars will be more than double of 2022. — Charles Sanchez (zeroemisionrd)

• Doubling the number of EVs on the road to 20 million globally. More solar cars on the roads (like Sion), V2G and electric trucks. — David Waterworth, writer for CleanTechnica and owns a Tesla M3.

• EV sales double again to around 11% of [US] new car sales.
  — @joshdance

• A Tesla Model 3 owner predicts 20% of car companies will go bankrupt or merge, most of them in China.
  ​Denis also sees some market consolidation ahead.

• The number of EVs sold in Europe will make records... and Estonia will have its own new small electric car rolling on the street. — anonymous

I found these specific point of views interesting too:

Paul from PTOLEMUS added that EVs will see much more VC investment in 2023. He also sees VinFast making a name for itself in the industry.

China dominating the EV sales and Chinese EV makers expanding strong outside of China is predicted by f205v, @elonfantommy, Michael V (owns Renault Twizy), Denis Tossan, Dani, and Capital Rewards. MSC goes as far saying that "this will lead to panic among traditional manufacturers and political pressure. Think accusations of price dumping and govt subsidies."

Denis sees the EV takeup in the US accelerating at the expense of ICE vehicles thanks to IRA, but most brands will struggle to put out competitive EVs at capacity to meet the demand for couple more years. BYD and Tesla will benefit most due to the capacity and manufacturing prowess.

Road Tax for EVs will be widely discussed in many countries to compensate for lost taxes on petrol. — f205v and an anon Chevy Bolt EUV owner had similar thoughts here.

Denis, Capital Rewards and DSRPT both mention that EV trucking will see a huge rise in interest.

We had three great takes on mainstream media and EVs:

A counterprediction for that from Dave:

Or does either even matter?

CHARGING

Tom Waters, a Chevy Volt driver and Michael Peters from Sway Mobility (with a fleet of Bolts and a LEAF) also predict that a lack of reliable charging infrastructure will hold adoption back.

Mjb adds that the government rebates almost guarantees some companies just will put up the chargers for the funds. Almir who owns a Tesla MY and Volvo C40 adds that the focus will switch to electrifying the infrastructure based on the gov incentives. And Bret thinks the CCS network might become even more unreliable with the new EV flood.

Nikita (Product at Faction, Advisor at Live Charge) predicts that the EU will adopt a common swappable battery standard. He also says that the public charge stations will become a hot spot for trendy EV folks to hang out.

An anonymous member says there will be more public pressure for DC chargers [in Canada]. Additional service opportunities arise like vacuums and garbage cans near chargers.

Dan and DSRPT predict that more bi-directional chargers will be installed at home, and EVs will start being used as a load balancer. Matt predicts that Kia will launch Vehicle-to-Home capabilities. I also enjoyed this comment:

TESLA

We received enough predictions on the current leader of the EV industry to have it's own headline. Let's see what y'all think:

On Tesla market share:

• Tesla will continue to dominate. — Model Y owner in Canada, CyberTruck preorder holder

• Tesla market share will peak. — Almir

• Tesla sales will drop below 50% of the EV market in the US. — Hyundai Ioniq 5 owner

• The combination of non-Tesla sales will overtake Tesla in the U.S. — Mouse, drives VW ID.4 2022

• Tesla will continue to crush it, production and market share-wise. — Nikita (Faction/LC)

• GM will increase EV market share with the Bolt EUV, etc. and Tesla will reduce. — Chevy Bolt EUV owner

On Tesla share price:

• We will see TSLA drop significantly below $100. — Siggi (owns ID.3)

• Elon Musk and Tesla will create a bad year for the shareholders. — anon

• Tesla loses meaningful market share to legacy brands as they bring out better and better EVs leading to valuation of Tesla dropping to match other automotive companies. — anonymous (works @ Beast)

Now, I want to point out that the next prediction from "LucyLuc" came in before the Tesla cut its prices up to 20% globally overnight:

LucyLuc also said that Rivian will come to Europe, VW will scale up the production and reduce waiting times, and EVs will be more popular than expected in 2022.

"World loses mind over Cybertruck. Michael Jackson+Prince+Princess Diana level hysteria & fervor in every nook & cranny of Earth.

f205v and Jim Stack also say Cybertruck will start deliveries and, as f205v put it, "will have a HUGE impact on public perception of EVs in the USA."
Jim also says the 2-seat super efficient Aptera will start deliveries too.

Meanwhile, the anon (working at Beast) says Cybertruck deliveries will be delayed to 2024, and the FSD will be delayed too. Anon says that

Nikita agrees that Tesla proper Full Self Driving will not come in 2023.

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BATTERIES

Almir says we'll start seeing more responsible battery manufacturing options, and DSRPT says more old EV batteries will find their way into energy storage solutions. @elonfantommy hopes to see the supply chain issues decrease, along with recycling gaining momentum before the year's end.

Here's an interesting take on silicon and nickel-based chemistries from Mike:

A local prediction for India from Megha:

And Daniel is talking of efficiency:

SKEPTICAL / LIMITED GROWTH

Although I might sound like a perpetual cheerleader every week, I recognize that skepticism is healthy. Not everyone predicts growth to continue at the same speed as last year:

“Due to macro conditions, EV sales growth slows from ~50% in 2022 to 30% in 2023, first half of the year will be slow.” — Stewart Fletcher

“EV sales in the US will be lower than in 2022.” — Paul from PTOLEMUS

Another anonymous reply sums it all up like this:

“It will be very tumultuous.”

A local look at New Zealand, which I'm sure can be attributed to elsewhere too:

“In New Zealand, the increase in general cost of living and the country facing recession, will mean less EV sales than last year.” — LEAF owner in NZ

Will EVs be expensive?

Nikita also predicts we'll see an affordable EV:

A retired anon on their second LEAF also says the long-distance EVs will be too expensive, although it will become normal to buy/lease an EV.

Brian thinks prices are going up instead:

Almir says our energy mix isn't great yet:

Someone that goes by "I Should of Known" and works in Agricultural Consulting had an interesting take:

He/she goes on sayin real economics don't support the environmental or financial aspects of this industry, and cites skyrocketing costs for batteries, chargers, grid problems and short driving range particularly on cold weather leaving owners unhappy. "What if in a year or two down the road, fusion or hydrogen becomes the answer?"

I'll give my two Watts on this one: I agree - it feels good to drive my EV. Although, the contribution to a cleaner environment is only one part of the reason why. The validity of this and the rest we can surely confirm every week on the newsletters. :)

OTHER EV CATEGORIES

Daniel touches the topic of hydrogen, predicting the first major accident on a hydrogen fueling station will occur. And the production of Toyota Mirai will be phased out.

I quite liked this prediction from Matt:

Matt. We need pictures of that Spider by the way.

The topic I don't cover on my newsletters but should start at some point:

Dani predicts about something a bunch of us are waiting to hit the market:

That's it for 2023 predictions. This was fun for me. I hope it was fun to read and participate for you. :)