Hey, Jaan here.
Whoopsie, looks like I wrote this one way into the AM again. Ain't now sleep for the wicked electrified.
Here's what I've learned about the EV industry this week.
The 2,252 words here should take about 13 minutes to read. And click on the (links) to chase any of the rabbits down the hole.
PS! Did you know, that some of my favorite findings are usually located in the end part of this newsletter, in the "I'm reading" section? Make sure you get there too.
The automaker released its new battery capacity plan, along with planned EV production rates.
We love to dissect the OEM plans, so follow me and let's chase this rabbit:
We knew Ford has increased its EV plans to reach 600k EVs/year by the end of 2023 and 2M by 2026*, to which they claim to be 'on track'. (link)
Here's how the 600k is divided:
Bigger picture promise: Ford plans for more than half of its global production to be EVs by 2030.
* Sidenote - you've probably seen headlines of late, saying Ford overtaking Tesla in something like... 2025? Well, on the current path, Tesla's run rate should be nearing ~2M by the end of this year, or gets there sometime next year, compared to Ford that plans it in '26. Similar story with GM.
I love it when automakers concentrate on THE differentiator which I think will sort out which OEM will be able to scale EV production... and which will not. You guessed it, it's the batteries.
Ford claims it has secured all 60 GWh of annual battery capacity it needs to support 600k EVs/year by late 2023. And on top of that, it has also sourced 70% of the battery capacity to support the 2M+ EVs/year run rate by 2026.
For clarity, I will assume this means they have secured 140 GWh of capacity by 2026. Let's take this apart below.
Just announced today, Ford signed a deal with CATL, adding LFP chemistry to its battery portfolio along its current NCM. The LFP packs will go to Mustang Mach-E models for North America next year and F-150 Lightnings in early 2024.
Switching CATL's prismatic cell-to-pack LFP batteries will save the automaker 10-15% in material cost.
As far as I could piece together, comes or will come from:
Note, that the cell factories that start in 2025 take some time to ramp up to full capacity.
I had this written for the Pro report tomorrow, but it fits in quite well here - I haven't seen the connection made yet anywhere.
CATL is reportedly considering two locations for a $5B battery plant in Mexico, near Texas border. (link) That's roughly enough for a ~80 GWh factory... or 2x40 GWh in different locations.
It's clear that the factory would supply Tesla with batteries (although not confirmed), but it is also very likely that it would also supply Ford through the newly inked deal. Two reasons I can think of:
#1: Ford is building the Mach-E also in Mexico, although ways further south in Cuautitlán.
#2: Guess where CATL's subsidiary that bought an old printing plant is located in the US? This might be the place for pack assembly for made-in-Mexico cells or an outright battery factory. Glasgow, Kentucky. A mere 50 miles from the upcoming BlueOval SK battery plant.
I rest my case. Always consider that I might be wildly off with this.
The 140 GWh needed for 2M EVs in 2026 seems likely thanks to Ford's deep ties with SK On, if the joint ventures happen on schedule. The CATL and LGES partnerships count for any additional (and/or missing) capacity.
Any self-respecting OEM nowadays knows that they will lose the game if they don't secure the battery raw material and its processing capacities for the near future.
Ford claims it has secured most of the nickel they'll need by 2026. Here are Ford's mining and processing deals. Note, that these are mostly non-binding MoUs. I added capacities where I could find 'em:
Natural Graphite: Syrah Resources and SK On (Louisiana)
Ford also announced a North American cathode production facility with EcoPro BM and SK On.
Counterpoint: Some of the Lithium deals we noted might not be that worthy of a mention for scale, according to Mr Lithium, Joe Lowry. He says that Ford shouldn't count on Ioneer's supply before 2029, if ever. He is also skeptical of Compass Minerals' ability to scale as quickly as needed.
TL;DR There's too much of undisclosed capacity to understand how much of the battery supply is covered through these offtake deals. What's clear is that most of the mining deals come online in 2024/2025, which will then ramp up and feed into the new joint ventures which should (eventually) put out a capacity of ~ 145 GWh.
Now all we got to do is watch how all this takes place with zero hiccups. 🤞
Chevrolet, the General Motors subsidiary, unveiled the series production version of the Blazer EV.
Here's what we know so far:
Our member Hilliard says it could be a hot seller, unless the Model 3/Y price comes down by then.
What's your take on the Blazer?
I'm in the mood for a little EV game.
Hit me with a reply with your guess. Do it now or you'll forget.
I'll cover the answer next week! I might or might not surprise one of the right answers with a gift. :)
🔌 Yes, I listened to the whole webcast. I'll be creating a deeper dive into Tesla Q2 Earnings call in tomorrow's Pro Report and filter out the important bits for the members.
Get the Pro and save more than an hour (link).
🇳🇴 Norway reached a milestone: EVs now drive more miles annually on average than cars running on gas or diesel. Hybrids on par with EVs.
Electric cars were responsible for ~17% of all kilometers (or well, miles) driven by the passenger car fleet last year. The 'total distance driven' trendlines are getting there, but we've still got ways to go:
Jaan's rant: This statistics go well with my own experience from selling >80 used Nissan LEAFs (...leaves?) over the last three years. The buyers have mostly bought the LEAF as their 'second car' in the family. When I meet them later on, I learn that the EV very fast becomes the 'first car' in the family used on everyday familiar routes, while the gas guzzlers are only left for longer trips.
🇺🇸 The US meanwhile passes the 5% market share for EVs in the first half of 2022, which should be the tipping point for mainstream adoption. (link) This is where the early adopters are overtaken by mainstream demand and magic happens. Let's see. Comparisons with others are promising:
Although it is a bit of an oversimplification given other possible production constraints, this chart plays out how the automakers' % of EV sales of overall car sales takes off after reaching a tipping point of 10% EV sales:
🚗 BMW (reportedly) decided that the Neue Klasse (New Class) platform models planned for 2025 will be built exclusively as BEVs. (link) The first model in the platform is also now confirmed to be using round (46XX) NMC cells on an 800-V architecture.
🛂 Tesla has (somehow) gotten a dedicated line at the US-Mexico border crossing near Laredo Texas, for its suppliers. (link).
💰 North Carolina subsidizes VinFast with a package worth $1.2B for its Chatham County plant construction. This should shell out 150k EVs per year from mid-2024 and also build batteries and electric buses (link).
We might have been on to something when I wrote the headline on January 2021 on our 12th newsletter: is North Carolina the next EV hub?
⚡ UK might decouple the electricity price from gas prices, which would presumably bring down the electricity price thanks to the cheaper wind and solar power reaching customers. Guess what - that's good news for EV owners! (link) via The Fast Charge.
💰 General Motors is giving some Cadillac Lyriq customers a $5,500 discount for signing an NDA and letting the company track the use of the vehicle. The first production Lyriq was delivered to a Michigan showroom last week. (link) via FoT.
🇨🇦 Canada, where this week was a 'national EV week', announced it will fund 6,000 EV chargers in a CA$45M (~$35M) investment. (link)
The funds go to companies like:
And to governmental bodies like:
* It kind of hits weird that the government gives out money to an oil company for EV chargers. But then again...
📅 If you happen to be in Estonia on the 8th of September, come hear me talk (and go test drive 50+ different EV models) on ABB Demoday 2022 in Jüri (link).
🚫 Nissan is reportedly planning to phase out the LEAF. (link)
🚗 Update - last week, I mentioned that the electric Porsche Macan and Audi Q6 e-tron might be delayed as the software arm Cariad is behind schedule. Porsche CEO, Oliver Blume, now confirmed the delay, saying market launch is in 2024.
Expect its sister model, Q6 e-tron and set for 2023, to soon have the same announcement. (link in 🇩🇪)
👀 Lightyear 0 manufacturing update with snapshots of work on the solar EV.
Kia EV6 does well in Moose test:
📚 Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe on their thoughts on the Amazon-Rivian partnership, as the first hundreds of delivery vans hit the road. (link)
By the end of 2022, the electric delivery vans should be delivering Amazon packages in more than 100 cities before the end of 2022.
📚 I just learned of the P3 Charging Index, which for the third time has provided a comparison between EV fast-charging capabilities (the real ones, not on paper). (link)
Kia EV6 nailed it this time, exceeding the index' ideal value of recharging more than 300km (186mi) within 20 minutes for the first time.
Charging curves of their luxury (>65k€), premium (35k€-65k€) and compact (<35k€) class EVs were measured:
📚 Study from T&E (commissioned to Minviro) that shows how much solid-state batteries can reduce the carbon footprint of batteries throughout various factors... which is up to 39% apparently (18pp pdf, and the LCA study 77pp pdf).
📚 AP's interview with Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors, on EVs. (link)
Zero-emission urban buses (electric or hydrogen) in Europe, listed by T&E:
Leaders for zero emission bus sales in Europe:— Transport & Environment (@transenv) July 14, 2022
🥇The Netherlands🇳🇱 100%
🥈Finland 🇫🇮 96%
🥉Norway 🇳🇴 78%
How can countries & cities benefit from affordable, clean electric buses? A 100% ZEV bus sales target in 2027 will be key
🧵on the state of the bus market👇 pic.twitter.com/H9r0PGPKmx
And here's the same image larger:
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Are we heading towards a lithium deficit? --- The Inflation Reduction Act --- Spotlight: The Microlino 2.0.
We see all these gigafactories popping up... now we need the lithium projects that feed them.